Nehro a threat in the Belmont

Nehro (inside) breezes 6f  in 1:12.20 at Churchill Downs
with stablemate Dominus on May 30, 2011
Reed Palmer Photography, Churchill Downs

Even though Nehro hasn't yet won a stakes race, the Mineshaft colt's running style and his near-misses in the Kentucky, Arkansas, and Louisiana Derbys point to him as a fast-improving horse who seems to have the credentials to spoil the bids of Animal Kingdom and Shackleford to add a second triple crown victory to their resumes.

In a tuneup for the June 11th Belmont-G1, Nehro breezed six furlongs over a fast track early this morning at Churchill Downs, in company with the Smart Strike colt, Dominus, another Steve Asmussen-trained three-year-old who placed in the Derby Trial-G3 at Churchill in his last start.  Working on the rail under exercise rider Carlos Rosas, Nehro was caught by the clockers in 1:12.20.  Even though he finished a length behind Dominus, assistant trainer Scott Blasi told Daily Racing Form, "I thought they went great."

Asmussen has indicated that Nehro will likely ship to Belmont in three days, on Thursday, June 2nd, where he'll train up to the mile-and-a-half classic at Belmont Park.

Nehro seems to be following in the footsteps of his late-maturing sire, Mineshaft, who didn't really blossom until his four-year-old season, when he became a true powerhouse, winning four Grade I handicaps, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Suburban, both at a mile and a quarter at Belmont.  For his exploits that year, in which he won or placed in nine stakes and earned $2,209,686, Mineshaft was voted Champion Older Male and Horse of the Year.

Nehro preps for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill
on April 28, 2011
Photo:  Reed Palmer Photography, Churchill Downs

Mineshaft's sire, the Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-Race A. P. Indy, not only won the Belmont, but also sired Rags to Riches, who, when she outgamed Curlin to capture the Belmont in 2007, became only the third filly ever to win the prestigious race, and the first one to do so since 1905.

From his first five crops of racing age, Mineshaft has sired seven graded stakes winners, including classic contender Dialed In, who won this year's Florida Derby-G1, but who has not fared as well in the first two legs of the triple crown, finishing off the board in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Nehro didn't break his maiden until February of this year, when he won a mile maiden special weight race at Oaklawn in his third lifetime start.  Though he has now amassed earnings of $825,140, Nehro is still eligible for non-winners of two allowance conditions.  Even though he won't go postward in the Belmont as the bettors' favorite, he will certainly go into the starting gate with their respect.

Nehro is the eighth foal from stakes-winning The Administrator, by Canadian Champion and Horse of the Year, Afleet, a son of Mr. Prospector.  The Administrator has been a solid citizen in the breeding shed, having produced four other winners, including Grade III winner Saint Marden (by Saint Ballado) and the talented Kris S. filly, Sweet Lips, a stakes winner of $565,138.

Nehro's fifth dam, the Newstead Farm foundation mare, Legendra, is also the fifth dam of legendary Zenyatta.  In a blog post from April, 2010, noted pedigree analyst Frank Mitchell recounted how W. L. Brann, who bred and raced Legendra in the 1940s, summed up his breeding philosophy in an interview with Daily Racing Form's Charlie Hatton:  "I breed for the classics and try to emulate the best racehorses in England with my own bloodstock."

While Nehro's Dosage Index (4.33) suggests that he may not quite be able to get the Belmont's 12 furlongs, there is physiological evidence to indicate that he can.  When they measured him prior to the 2009 Keeneland September sale, EQB recognized Nehro's superior cardiovascular capabilities, and earmarked him as one of their "short-list" prospects.  Their client, Ahmed Zayat, subsequently signed the ticket for Nehro's $170,000 purchase price, and must be pleased with the returns on what now seems like a relatively modest investment.

Regardless of whether he wins the Belmont, or he doesn't, there's no doubt that in Nehro, Zayat Stable has got a talented colt in its arsenal, one who seems capable of becoming a star in his own right, with the genetic fortitude to keep going strong when other rivals fade in the stretch.

Zenyatta to meet her match in Bernardini

Jerry and Ann Moss have announced that their grand mare, 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta (by Street Cry), will be bred to A. P. Indy's son, Bernardini, whose first foals distinguished themselves as two-year-olds last year, with victories in five graded stakes on both sides of the Atlantic.

According to Darley, at whose Lexington, Kentucky farm he stands for a fee of $75,000, Bernardini is the first freshman sire to produce juvenile Grade I winners on both dirt and turf.  They were the talented filly, A  Z Warrior (out of Carson Jen, by Mr. Prospector's son, Carson City), who captured the Frizette Stakes-G1, and Biondetti (out of Lyphard's Delta, by Lyphard), who won the Gran Criteriuim-G1 in Italy.

Bernardini's other promising offspring include the Derby hopeful, To Honor and Serve (out of Pilfer, by Deputy Minister), who won a pair of Grade II stakes (the Remsen and the Nashua) in New York, and Theyskens' Theory (out of Heat Lightning, by Summer Squall), who captured the Chicester Observer Prestige Stakes-G3 in England.

Voted Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Colt in his sole season of racing, Bernardini won six of his eight starts that year, including the Preakness (in which favored Barbaro was injured), the Travers, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, defeating older horses with what track announcer Tom Durkin described as "nonchalant brilliance."  He was second to Invasor in the Breeders' Cup Classic, after which he was retired to stud, with earnings of $3,060,480.

The match between Bernardini and Zenyatta will replicate the oft successful nick between A. P. Indy and mares by Mr. Prospector and his sons.  These lines have previously combined to produce Horse of the Year Mineshaft; Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Tempera; Canadian Champion Three-Year-Old Colt Eye of the Leopard (out of Eye of the Sphynx, by Smart Strike), and the Grade I stakes winners Tomisue's Delight, Little Belle, Sweet Symphony (out of Brandy Rose, by Distinctive Pro), Flashing (out of Morning Pride (Ire), by Zenyatta's grandsire, Machiavellian), Girolamo, A. P. Adventure (out of Nataliano, by Fappiano), and Jilbab (out of Headline (GB), by Machiavellian).

A foal by Bernardini out of Zenyatta will be inbred to Brilliant/Classic Chef-de-Race Mr. Prospector (5m x 4m), with a Dosage Profile heavily weighted toward classic influences:  3-6-13-0-0.  True Nicks rates the match as an A++, while the Werk Nick Rating is a bit lower, at B+.

In addition to the obvious genetic qualities that Bernardini brings to Zenyatta, it should be noted that he is also a beautifully balanced individual of good size (listed as 16.1-1/2 hands tall).  Zenyatta reportedly stands 17.2   Their foal will probably be a dark bay, like its parents, and will have the birthright to be a very good racehorse, indeed.